Extracts from an address to the Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies

The Australian High Commissioner invited Mr McKinnon to speak to the 36 people on a course run by the College. The course participants come from Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.

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I am delighted to be here to give my first official post election speech - albeit in caretaker mode.

Last year I spoke to a similar gathering about New Zealands defence and strategic approach to the region and with Australia. I want to address that again but first I thought it would be useful to put that in the context of last Saturdays election. So Ill give you my perspective of that day and where I think we should be heading.

Last year I gave a speech about the impact of MMP on New Zealands foreign policy. I quoted from Alexander Popes An Essay of Man written in the early 18th century when he said,

For forms of government let fools contest.
Whatre is best administered is best.

So far administerability is proving an illusive concept. But you also cant help wondering about the fools element of Mr Popes observation. But strange things do happen under MMP. You only have to look to Ireland where the far right and the far left are in coalition. Only in Ireland perhaps ?

I began campaigning at the end of June and so effectively spent 3 1/2 months travelling from one end of the country to the other, zig zagging from one coast to the other. Of the six campaigns Ive been on this was by far the easiest in terms of public reception. There was no real antagonism towards the Government. The strong feeling I got was that the country generally supports the way we are heading.

And this has - despite of the myriad of distracting commentary on potential coalition deals and reaction to leaders comments on election night - been reflected in the election results.

There can be very little doubt about the swing to the center right. I want to spend some time demonstrating this. If nothing else it might serve as useful guidance to New Zealand First as they decide which way theyll jump. Its certainly the way the country said it wanted to go on Saturday night. One of New Zealand Firsts frequently heard catch cries was that they would listen to the people of New Zealand - they are saying give way to the right.

There was a general swing to the right of about 12%. There was a swing of 2.9% to National alone. Under the old system this would have given us a majority of about 5 or 6 seats in the House.

So by comparison how did the left do? Labour dropped from 35% of the vote in 1993 to 28% last Saturday. The Alliance, who predicted as their worst case scenario they would win 15 seats, actually won only 13. In statistical terms their share of the vote dropped from 18% in 1993 to 10% - it has almost halved.

To me this plummet in support reflects the fact the New Zealand electorate is far more sophisticated than perhaps talk back shows lead us to believe. New Zealanders no longer buy promises that you can get something for nothing (although the worm obviously did) and have realised throwing money at problems doesnt solve them.

The center right preference is also demonstrated in the break down of electorate seats in the House. Of the 60 general seats 32 have gone center right (30 to National, 1 to Act and 1 to United). The remaining 5 Maori seats have also abandoned the left. The Labour Leader has been heard recently saying she didnt believe New Zealand First Maori voters voted for a National/New Zealand First coalition.

I dont believe this is what these voters were thinking at all. At the most these voters were saying they felt neutral about National. They did however send two equally negative messages to Labour - that they didnt want to support the left and that they wanted to support a party with center right tendencies. Labour has consequently seen over 20% of its traditional Maori vote fall away.

It is interesting to note a TVNZ Holmes poll taken on Monday night said 57% supported a National/New Zealand First coalition as opposed to 43% supporting a Labour/New Zealand First coalition.

But lets look in more detail at the swing to the right. Its telling that on election night National only lost one sitting MP - Labour lost six.

The Prime Minister was the party leader with the largest majority in his electorate and he is still the most preferred leader.

The Labour leader gained 14 000 votes in her electorate of Owairaka. The National candidate was only 5 000 votes behind. But of most interest is the fact that in the Labour leaders electorate, her party and the National party gained the same number of votes - 9 000 each. Thats phenomenal in what should have been such a strongly pro-left seat.

In the Alliance leaders electorate of Wigram in Christchurch the National Party took 7 000 votes while Mr Andertons party gained just over half of that support with 4 000 votes. Overall the left vote was the strongest in Wigram but the center right still took over half the party support (National 7 000, with the combined Alliance and Labour vote amounting to 13 000).

In the New Zealand First leaders electorate support for the center right was resounding. Mr Peters gained 17 000 votes and our candidate Katherine ORegan gained 10 000. National won the party vote - with 11 000 votes to New Zealand Firsts 9 000.

Its also worth looking at what have traditionally been regarded as the two indicator seats of the New Zealand electorate - Hamilton East and Hamilton West. In both these seats non-sitting National candidates ousted sitting Labour MPs. And in both electorates the National party vote out stripped the combined vote for Labour and the Alliance - roughly 11 500 for National and 9 000 for the left in both cases.

Sticking with the North Island an analysis of the Auckland seats is also instructive. National now holds 12 of the 18 new general electorate seats in the Auckland region. This compares with 14 of the 27 gained in 1993. Labour held 12 of these seats in 1993. This has dropped back to six.

And, although not of any significant relevance, it was a National seat in Auckland which gained the largest majority. This was in Epsom where Christine Fletchers election night majority was 18 000 votes.

Two other electorates worth a quick look for the mood they reflect are another in Auckland and one in Christchurch. In Aucklands traditionally Labour area of Maungakiekie a non-sitting National woman candidate took the seat from a sitting Labour candidate.

In the Christchurch electorate of Waimakariri, former Labour leader Mike Moore won the seat, as was expected, but the National Party won the party vote by 2000 votes.

One final observation about the election, it was very interesting for the message it sent to any MPs who were considering swapping horses at any stage. Of the 13 MPs who did so in the last Parliament, only one retained his electorate seat - Uniteds Peter Dunne. Two who jumped to New Zealand First got back in on the list, but the rest are history. The moral is local constituents dont take kindly to being abandoned and will thrash you if you do so.